Moscow has already shown it wants to remove Ukraine’s leader, who insists on opposing Russian rule. The Ukrainian government has plans if the Kremlin succeeds, but has the potential to “perpetuate the conflict” and further complicate it.
The intent was clear. During the Ukrainian president’s surprise visit to the Mykolaiv region, the suspect is going to provide a list of places and times where Zelensky will be. Later, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a powerful air strike against the region, with the aim of killing the Ukrainian leader. The woman was caught and sentenced to 12 years in prison, but she is far from an isolated case when it comes to Russian attempts to kill Ukraine’s leader. What happens if Vladimir Putin’s spies win? Experts warn that this process is ongoing and the result will make the world an even more dangerous place.
“You have to understand the basics of Russian propaganda. Whenever Russia says it won’t do something, that’s the first sign that it will. Russia reiterating that it is not interested in removing Zelensky and the Kiev government is the biggest sign that it wants to do so. This detention is an ongoing process to remove Zelensky. It is a sign of that,” underscores Professor José Felipe Pinto.
The truth is that since Russia started the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there have been several attempts on the life of the Ukrainian leader. According to Mikhail Podoliak, one of the president’s key advisers, only in the first days of the war, A dozen groups Special forces penetrated the territory of the Ukrainian capital with the aim of “beheading” the Ukrainian regime. But they stopped.
It is true that the risk of an assassination attempt on the president has been significantly reduced by the withdrawal of Russian troops from the outskirts of the capital, but the risk remains. On Russian television and in parliament, it is common to hear calls to “eliminate Zelelensky” and attacks against “government centers.” Also, Ukrainian security forces must take into account Vladimir Putin’s Russia’s long history in the field of political assassinations. Such was the case with Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian spy who defected to England and was poisoned by a radioactive chemical called polonium-210. But there are also cases like the 2017 car explosion of Ukrainian special forces commander Maksim Shapoval or the 2018 poisoning of ex-spy Sergei Skripal with the chemical Novichok. According to Jose Filipe Pinto, an expert on international relations, the Ukrainian president began to be seen not only by Russia, but as an “obstacle to peace talks” and as a “target to be shot down.”
Alexander Litvinenko (Alistair Fuller/AP)
The solution to the “power vacuum”.
The Ukrainian government is preparing for that scenario. According to Politics, if Russia succeeds in taking Zelensky’s life, he will be replaced by the head of the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stepanchuk. However, this politician does not enjoy the popularity or political capital that the Ukrainian president has. Months of wartime leadership turned Zelensky into a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. “But it doesn’t matter,” says Adrian Karatnicki, a researcher at the Atlantic Council think tank. “The country is at a point of considerable unity and national unity, and if something terrible happened to Zelensky, it would not be so decisive,” he says.
Led by Stefanchuk, the government will feature some key figures from the Zelensky-led administration. Chief of Staff of the President Andrii Yermak, Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov among others. According to experts interviewed by CNN Portugal, the situation could further delay the peace talks, even if they ensure that there is no “power vacuum”.
“Zelensky’s death is not in favor of a peace negotiation. Zelensky is a moderate. Look at the speech of people like Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine, his disappearance will open the door to more radical people. It will complicate the war,” says Major General Agostinho Costa.
The expert also believes that a possible assassination would always have “minimal” impact on the battlefield, as the Ukrainian government “leaves military leadership to military leadership.” In this sense, figures such as General Valery Zalushny, Oleksandr Chirsky, and the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Krylo Budanov, could retain their influence over the course of Ukrainian military operations. This is one of the strengths of the democratic system set up by Zelensky: the figures may change, but the institutions continue to function.
History reveals the resilience of democracy to potential assassinations. One study Two researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research examined the political impact of wars on corporations and national leaders between 1875 and 2004. The conclusion is that when an autocratic leader is assassinated, the country’s institutions face “significant changes”. Murders in democracies are not the same.
Zelensky: An obstacle to peace?
After all, for many countries in the so-called “Global South” and many in the West, they no longer see Vladimir Putin as the only major obstacle to peace negotiations. Many are beginning to see Zelensky as unfit to go to the negotiating table. Zelensky himself was probably well aware of this change. For José Filipe Pinto, this was evident in the Ukrainian leader’s statements about Lula da Silva, whom he accused of having “ideas consistent with those of President Putin.”
“The vision of peace – increasingly distant – consists of two adversaries: Putin on one side and Zelensky on the other. The conflict threatens to stabilize itself, only for a cease-fire. When Zelensky speaks in the words of Lula da Silva in Saudi Arabia, he means that he feels abandoned. His path has no future. “He realized that the peace plan he envisioned was not going to be possible. A part of the world was fed up,” says the professor.
Another factor to take into account is the impact of the US elections, which are approaching and are already scheduled for next year. On the opposite side of President Biden, a significant portion of Republican candidates oppose supporting Ukraine. The most likely candidate, former President Donald Trump, sits at the table with Putin and says he would end the war “twice.” This scenario is not far from reality, as the Ukrainian war effort relies heavily on Western weapons.
“There is no political solution in sight to this war as the conflict has become existential for both sides. If Ukraine loses, the West loses. Negotiations are currently a sign of weakness, but Zelensky’s assassination will escalate the conflict. However, we are overestimating Ukraine’s role in potential peace talks. This war ends when America is fit,” Major General Agostinho Costa underlines.