Pedro Santos Guerrero says that Montenegro has been preparing for elections since the first day of government. But there is still time and room for negotiation between PS and AD to work out a deal that saves face for both. Here’s how
The positions between AD and PS are currently irreconcilable – so a political crisis is also possible. But it is possible to get out of it, says Pedro Santos Guerrero, especially since the country will not welcome a new political crisis that will lead us to elections.
According to CNN Portugal’s executive director’s analysis (which you can watch in full in the video above), it is possible to reach an agreement and save face for the two party leaders. But they both have to love it, he adds. Otherwise, there are elections – Montenegro does not seem to be afraid of them.
This afternoon, the PS said it would never approve a state budget that includes IRS Jovem’s measures and the reduction of the IRC, making counter-proposals that “the government will never accept.”
“The cornerstone of the AD government is the reduction of taxes, and Montenegro will never abandon it.” But, the journalist adds, if the PS gives zero tolerance on those two measures, it does not seem flexible regarding its counter-proposals, suggesting a willingness to negotiate.
That is why, although there is some time to change the state budget proposal, there is still room for negotiation. Pedro Santos Guerreiro gives an example: if the government proposes a generalized reduction in the IRS of one billion euros instead of the IRS Jovem “which almost no one defends”, this will allow the victory of the PS to beat the IRS Jovem and the PSD. Success in maintaining a strong reduction in income taxes, a cornerstone of its economic plan. “IRC is very difficult to connect to,” he says, “but it’s possible.”
To do this, you both need to actually negotiate.
Or will one of them – or both – be interested in going to the polls? Remember that Luis Montenegro has already said that he will not rule in the twelfth, which suggests that he will resign from the government if the state budget proposal fails.
Pedro Santos Guerrero believes that if elections are held, “those who instigate them will lose.”
“We don’t know if Pedro Nuno Santos wants elections, but it doesn’t seem like it: by making counter-proposals, he’s opening up the space for negotiation,” he says. “We don’t know if Luis Montenegro wants the elections, but he has been preparing for them since the first day of the government,” he added.
The journalist reasons: From the beginning, the government has pushed popular measures, from the reduction of the IRS, the proposal to increase the minimum wage, the payment of extraordinary sums to pensioners and the contracts for salary increases in the public sector.