In an article published on the website of the New York-based Council on International Relations, which focuses on foreign policy and international affairs, Hoffman addressed the capabilities and methods of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement considered a terrorist organization by the European Union (EU). ) and to carry out coordinated and simultaneous attacks from the US, air, sea and land.
“The fact that Hamas has the ability to keep its products without the knowledge of a country like Israel, which has one of the world’s most sophisticated intelligence services, strongly suggests that it has planning and support, advice and guidance from abroad to carry out an attack on Israel. So Iran would be strongly suspected of being behind it,” he said. emphasized.
Iran provides at least 100 million dollars (94.4 million euros) a year to Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (JIP) and openly declares its intention to destroy Israel, with Tehran expressing concern over the possibility of Saudi Arabia and Israel establishing a formal embassy. Relations were strained by the security agreement between Riyadh and Washington.
“Iran had every reason to encourage and facilitate an attack on Israel. But that’s different from ordering, let alone planning or giving any kind of ‘green light’ to attacks. However, Hamas and JIP, like Hezbollah. [com sede no Líbano], with close ties to Iran, also operates independently. Thus, Iran’s long history of trying to destabilize countries in the region, including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, is well documented,” he said.
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised, the retaliation will be “massive and decisive, with the aim of destroying Hamas once and for all,” but the 7th shows that the war is war crimes, regardless of whether it was initiated by Hamas. This month, there are a lot of people and the payers are the public on both sides.
“Reports of executions, sexual abuse, civilians being taken from their homes and other indignities will not go unpunished by Israel. As more information comes to light and the shock of the initial attack wears off, Israelis will retaliate.” .
However, he defended the general argument about counter-terrorism that “there is no military solution” and that “unless a country is concerned about harming its citizens” is not entirely true, citing Sri Lanka as an example.
“The military campaign in 2009 completely crushed the Tamil Tigers. It is estimated that around 20,000 civilians were killed. The founder and leader of the LTTE, his entire command team and practically all officers and elements of the organization were killed. A group of terrorists can be destroyed in this way, but this represents a huge civilian loss.” He recalled.
“If Israel pursues this objective, a number of things could follow, including Hezbollah coming to the aid of Hamas, or Iran getting involved, foreign fighters like al-Qaeda and the Taliban joining forces among other groups. That would start this conflict down a completely different path,” Hoffman warned.
For the analyst, Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, has used the advantage of surprise with “astonishing success”, its “now advantage” being the ability to disperse and disappear within the enclave’s civilian shield.
However, according to Hoffman, Israel’s advantages should have prevented a surprise attack by Hamas, as Tel Aviv has “one of the most technologically sophisticated, well-trained, armed and professional armed forces in the region, if not the world.”
“The advanced weapons, doctrine, training and equipment of the Israel Defense Forces have given them formidable combat capabilities that will become more evident in the coming days,” the IRC analyst argued, adding that historically, terrorist organizations “have fared poorly. The full weight of an established state’s military might will be brought to bear on them.” while.”
According to Hoffman, the conflict is “remote” and completely unpredictable in its evolution, as “powerful and centrifugal forces” are unleashed that are rewriting the rules for Israel, Hamas, and perhaps others in the region.
“For example, Hezbollah’s long-standing ties to Hamas and their mutual state patronage have a vested interest in ensuring the longevity of its regional terrorist clients, Hezbollah, but at Iran’s discretion, it could go to war if Israel launched a ground attack on Gaza. The consequences would be enormous,” he warned.
Currently, he continued, Hezbollah has an arsenal of missiles believed to be ten times larger, more accurate, and capable of traveling longer distances, making the entire territory of Israel vulnerable to missile attacks.
“The potential for war to spread, and the terrible bloodshed and tragedy that will follow, will make any kind of talks more difficult than in the past. If Israel launches a major ground offensive and reoccupies Gaza, it will raise the question: Faced with a three-pronged war, will Israel target Iran and pressure its minions to withdraw? ” Hoffman asked without answering. .