Donald Trump dominates voters on key economic issues, but has a two-point lead over Kamala Harris in the race for the White House, according to a CNBC poll on Thursday.
Following the assassination attempt on Trump and the Republican convention following the appointment of Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden – Trump’s 48-46% lead is within the margin of error of the ‘CNBC’ poll, unchanged from results recorded in July. NBC’ between Biden and Trump (43-45%).
While the head-to-head competition remains the same, drastic but compensating changes under the surface for both sides keep the race even. The most dramatic change was for Harris (81% of Democrats approve), up from just 33% satisfied with the U.S. president — partially offset by a 9-point increase among Republicans in satisfaction with Trump. Appointment, total 80%.
Interest in the election increased three points for Democrats, but two points for Republicans. Young voters showed more support for Harris than Biden, now supporting the vice president by 10 points compared to 2 points for Trump in NBC’s July poll. This was offset by a 12-point swing toward Trump among 35- to 49-year-old voters. The age group now favors Trump by 9 points. Harris’ net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) improved to -8 from -15 in the July NBC poll, but Trump’s improved by nearly the same amount to -9.
“Right now, it’s less a poll on Trump than a direct contest between the two candidates,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies. The polls are close and both candidates are consolidating support among members of their respective parties, though not making significant gains among undecided voters, which is necessary to win the presidency.
According to Roberts, Harris has a lot of work to do in the short term. “She still carries a lot of water for management,” explained the expert. “You still have to respond to that and define yourself as an independent. There’s a lot of baggage to carry when you have a shortened deadline against a mature campaign on Trump’s side.
On the economy, Americans think they will be better off financially under Trump. This is largely driven by the 79% of Republicans who believe their economy will improve if Trump takes the White House. 48% of Democrats believe they would be better off if Harris wins, while 42% say it makes no difference. Among independents, 31% think it doesn’t matter if Trump wins, 10% if Harris wins, and 54% think it doesn’t matter.
The results offer an opportunity to convince independents that both parties have better economic policies: Independents trail Harris 40-36 in the presidential race, with 20% undecided. His lead among independents is 4 points less than Biden’s in July.
One of the main reasons the two are so close: When voters are asked “who is best at bringing positive change to the country,” Harris leads Trump 39% to 38% — a technical tie.
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