At a time when voters are grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, the pro-Russian narrative is gaining ground in this country.
Slovakia is preparing to elect its fifth prime minister in four years, and with Kremlin-friendly Robert Fico’s opposition leading the polls, it’s a situation viewed with caution in the West.
Slovakia has been one of Kiev’s staunchest allies since Russia invaded Ukraine last February. The two countries share a border with Slovakia, the first country to send air defenses to Ukraine and host tens of thousands of refugees.
But all this could change if Fico comes to power. The former prime minister made no secret of his sympathies for the Kremlin and blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch the invasion, repeating the false narrative Putin used to justify his invasion.
Robert Figo called on the Slovak government to stop supplying Kiev with weapons and said that if he became prime minister, Slovakia would “not send any more ammunition”. It also opposes Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
Grigorij Mesežnikov, a political analyst and head of the Public Affairs Institute, a Slovak think tank, said that, like many Russian supporters, Fico frames his support for Moscow as a “peace” initiative.
“He and his allies are arguing that we shouldn’t send arms to Ukraine because it will prolong the war, and they say, ‘If we stop sending arms to Ukraine, there will be peace,’ because if we don’t, the conflict will soon end, so, in essence, they are not in favor of peace. , they’re pro-Russia,” he told CNN.
Fico was Slovakia’s prime minister for more than a decade, first between 2006 and 2010, and then again between 2012 and 2018.
He was forced to resign in March 2018 after weeks of mass protests over the murders of investigative journalist John Kuciak and his fiancee Martina Kushnerova. Kuciak denounced corruption among the country’s elite, including those directly linked to Fico and his SMER party.
Confusion and conflict
In elections in 2020 voters defected from SMER and chose the centre-right party Ordinary People and Independent Persons (OLaNO).
Originally seen as a breath of fresh air, Olano and its leader Igor Matovich have disappointed many of its voters. Matovič, a self-made billionaire, won the election on a strong anti-corruption platform, promising to “clean up” Slovakia.
But his anti-corruption credentials won many early victories. He was forced to admit to plagiarizing his master’s thesis and headed a government riddled with internal strife.
He was forced to resign a year later after his unilateral decision to buy Covid-19 vaccines from Russia sparked a revolt in his coalition government.
Matovič switched places with his finance minister, Eduard Heger, but confusion continued. As the country grappled with the pandemic and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, more infighting and personal conflicts led to the collapse of the ruling coalition in December. Heger continued as interim prime minister, but he too resigned in May and was replaced by a technocrat, Lutovid Oder.
The turmoil of the past few years has given Figo a new opportunity.
“A year after the last election, the party seemed to disappear completely. But (Fico) has rehabilitated himself and is now the main candidate,” Mesežnikov said. “SMER still has strong support among its core voters, and this support is emotionally linked to Fico, but they have been helped by several conflicts within the government and some external factors, including Covid, high inflation, the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine”.
Slovakia has a complicated electoral system and a fragmented political scene, with 10 political groups capable of reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
This means that even if Figo’s party wins the election, it will need at least one coalition party. Fico did not rule out the possibility of working with Republika, a far-right extremist party that says the war in Ukraine is the result of “NATO’s expansionist policy” and “Kiev’s aggression against the Russian minority in eastern Ukraine.”
Misinformation and propaganda prevail
Government infighting and several high-profile corruption scandals have weakened public trust in public institutions and created fertile ground for propaganda and false propaganda.
Last month, Slovak police accused the country’s intelligence chief and several senior security officials of conspiring to abuse their power. Fico, who is close to some of the people involved in the scandal, described the situation as a “police coup”.
According to a survey by Bratislava-based security think tank GlobSec, only 40% of Slovaks believe Russia is to blame for the war in Ukraine, the lowest percentage among eight states in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics. In the Czech Republic, which forms a single country with Slovakia, 71% blame Russia for the war.
The same survey found that 50% of Slovaks view the US – the country’s longtime ally – as a security threat.
Dominika Hajdu, political director of GlobSec’s Center for Democracy and Resilience, says Slovakia is particularly vulnerable to Russian propaganda.
“Some of the parties currently leading the polls are spreading the same narrative – for example, that the West is trying to drag us into war and that anyone who is pro-Ukrainian is automatically anti-Slovak.” , he said.
Pro-Russian propaganda also has an impact, as a large portion of the population has always been pro-Russian and even now, about a quarter of the population view Russian President Vladimir Putin in a positive light.
“Historically, there has always been a strong pan-Slavic narrative that Russia was the strong brother who protected the Slovaks from the Hungarians and then liberated Slovakia from the Nazis,” he added.
Having been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire for centuries, Slovakia has a complicated relationship with Hungary. Hungarians are the largest minority in Slovakia and many Hungarians still consider the 1920 Treaty of Trianon an injustice against their country. This fact has led to nationalist rhetoric on both sides of the border.
Věra Jourová, the European Commission’s top digital affairs official, said Saturday’s vote was a “test” of social media companies’ effectiveness in combating Russian propaganda in Slovakia because the issue was a dividing line in the election.
“Slovakia has been chosen (by Russia) as fertile ground for the success of Russian pro-Kremlin and pro-war narratives,” said Věra Jourová, the European Commission’s chief digital officer.
Mesežnikov said Fico and his allies were exploiting growing fatigue and anger among Slovak voters over the government’s apparent support for Ukraine.
“The government took a very quick and decisive decision – and in doing so it found itself on the right side of history – to support Ukraine,” Figo said. “Slovakia became an active member of the EU by proposing sanctions against Russia and sending all possible equipment to Ukraine.”
Slovakia delivered armored vehicles, helicopters, howitzers and other equipment following a decision to send air defense forces weeks after the invasion began. It welcomed more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees – a significant number for a country of just 5.4 million people.
However, Mechesnikov said that a large group of Slovaks disagreed with this approach – and SMER and Republika started to fall in love with them.
“Their other argument besides peace is that we shouldn’t help Ukraine because it’s done at the expense of Slovaks. It’s too expensive, they say we should only worry about ourselves”, says Mesežnikov.
It’s a powerful argument for voters grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, but Mesežnikov said it’s not entirely based on facts, as most support is subsidized in EU funds.
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