From February 2022, the news around the world takes us to the terror experienced in Ukraine after the Russian invasion led by Vladimir Putin. However, until last Saturday, neither events brought any hope to the weakness of the Russian president. The truth is that last weekend, for almost 24 hours, millions of Ukrainians believed that the war with Russia might be over. According to The Guardian, from 9pm on Friday – when Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group, announced the march to Moscow – to 8pm on Saturday – the same mercenary troops with their tanks and armored vehicles numbered just over 300. Kilometers from the Russian capital – the country was ravaged by Russian troops and was watching the end of Putin’s rule. However, it wasn’t long before the ‘march for justice’, as the group’s leader called it, came to an end. After that? Speculation over the whereabouts of Prigozhin, who in a voice message posted on Telegram assured him “it is not his goal to topple Putin’s power”; Doubts about the future of his mercenaries and a turning point in Volodymyr Zelensky’s counter-offensive.
Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia for neighboring Belarus, a deal brokered by that country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko.
Then, according to Russian and Western media, including the Italian news agency ANSA, a few days after the uprising, the leader of the Wagner Group was spotted at the Green City Hotel in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. However, it was only on Tuesday that the country’s president confirmed that both Prigozhin and other Russian mercenaries were already in Belarus. “Security guarantees have been provided, as promised by Vladimir Putin. (…) Yes, indeed, he is in Belarus today,” Lukashenko said at a military ceremony, as quoted by the official Belda news agency. During the agreement, Prigozhin and some of his troops would be welcome to stay in Belarus “for a short time” and at his own expense. Lukashenko revealed.
Also, on Tuesday, Russian officials announced that they had ended their criminal investigation into the armed uprising and that “no charges will be brought against Prigozhin” or “against his troops after the conclusion of the agreement.”
A Martyr?
A day later, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW, its acronym in English), the Russian president realized that he could not “destroy” Prigozhin, so he was going to “destroy his reputation.” He would no longer receive “popular support” and would cease to be “pursued” by the fighters of the Wagner Group.
At this point, the company’s analysis reveals that Putin has decided that he “cannot destroy” the head of the Wagner Group without “making him a martyr” and, therefore, is beginning to try to portray him as “corrupt and a liar.” Wagner’s reputation among the people and in Russian society.”
Advice from a ‘friend’
On Saturday, the Kremlin leader vowed to crack down on what he characterized as “treason”: “The betrayal of the Wagner group is a stab in the back of our country and our people,” Putin declared in a speech broadcast across Russia. Mercenary operations led to the Russian Revolution of 1917, which overthrew Tsar Nicholas II in World War I. Lukashenko says Putin wanted to “destroy” Prigozhin during the uprising.
However, in a meeting with military officials and journalists on Tuesday, according to the Belarusian state newspaper, Alexander Lukashenko said he had urged the Russian president not to do so. “I suggested to Putin not to rush. ‘Let’s go’, I said, ‘let’s talk with Prigozhin, with his generals’,” he recounted. A well-known ally of Putin said he had advised the Russian president to think “beyond our noses” and that removing Prigozhin would lead to a “general revolt of his militia”. The Belarusian president felt that tensions between the Russian mercenary company Wagner and Moscow’s military were “poorly managed” and that this had sparked the “conflict” over the weekend. Earlier, he revealed, he ordered the Minsk army to “prepare for war”: “I gave all orders that the Belarusian army should be fully ready for war,” said Alexander Lukashenko, quoted by Belda.
According to the ISW, the Kremlin “has engaged in a domestic information campaign in Russia to exonerate Wagner fighters and commanders in an attempt to lure them into signing agreements with the Russian Ministry of Defense”: “There may be a deliberate attempt to separate Prigozhin from the Wagner group. The information conditions the Kremlin to accuse Prigozhin of corruption or collusion with Ukraine or the West.” aims to establish,” the text reads.
“Putin probably decided at this point that he could not remove Prigozhin outright without making him a martyr,” continues the analysis, which highlights that the Wagner leader “still maintains some support within Russian society and the Russian regular forces” and, therefore, that the Kremlin “rejects these groups against Prigozhin in Russia.” Ensure effective deprivation of public support”.
ISW believes that much of this support came from Prigozhin’s criticism of the military command, “the disillusioned news of the mobilization of many soldiers and their families, casualties, lack of supplies and high loss of life”. On Monday, the head of the Wagner Group released an audio on Telegram, lasting 11 minutes, in which he presented the reasons for last Saturday’s revolt, promising to withdraw “to avoid the bloodshed of Russian soldiers”. The official also warned that the uprising had “caused glaring security lapses” in Russia. According to Prigozhin, “no one from the Wagner group agreed to sign any agreement with the Russian Ministry of Defense”. “We are not marching to overthrow the Russian leadership. (…) We did not show any hostility, but we were attacked by missiles and helicopters. It was tempting. (…) The aim of the march was to avoid the destruction of the Wagner Group. It was condemned as missing on July 1,” he added.
ISW’s analysis says the Kremlin “will continue to attack Prigogine’s role to break popular support, discourage Wagner’s people from following him to Belarus, and destroy his financial power.”
Process filed
“Preparations are underway for the transfer of heavy military equipment from the private military company Wagner to units of the Russian Armed Forces,” the Russian news agency RIA said in a statement this Tuesday. According to the same agency, the investigative department of the Federal Security Service (FSB) abandoned the criminal process of armed rebellion against the leader of the Wagner group.
In a statement, the FSB explained that the process was halted because “participants stopped activities aimed directly at committing a crime.” The decision comes after the Kremlin released a statement following the crackdown on the anti-Putin rebellion, which guaranteed that fighters who took part in the uprising “will not be interrogated and will be allowed to return to base”. So the mercenary had two options: join the Russian army and completely extinguish the Wagner group, or go to Belarus.
A ‘risky’ deal
However, this does not mean that the waters will calm down. According to Svetlana Tikanovskaya, head of the Belarusian opposition, the Wagner leader and the Belarusian president “are not allies and may be disloyal to each other”. “At any moment, Lukashenko may betray Prigozhin or Prigozhin may betray Lukashenko. They are not allies. They don’t trust each other,” he said.
Dikhanovskaya, who claimed victory against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, insisted there was “much more to be clarified” about the alleged deal.
For the Belarusian opposition leader in exile in Lithuania, Lukashenko’s decision to help Vladimir Putin was a “gesture of personal convenience to save the Minsk regime”. “He did not act to save Putin’s face, to save Prigozhin or to prevent the outbreak of civil war in Russia (…) He was only concerned with his own survival, because Lukashenko knows that if Russia’s factions enter the conflict. , he can pay the price », he believes. “Prygozhin’s fighters are Belarus. If invaded in large numbers, they could threaten Europe,” Dikhanovskaya said.
“The presence of Prigozhin’s or Wagner’s group on our territory is, above all, a threat to the Belarusian people and our freedom,” he warned.
After the tension over the weekend, Vladimir Putin now says he made Prigozhin a rich man.
On Wednesday, the Russian leader revealed that the Wagner Group had received nearly one billion euros from Moscow in one year. The Russian head of state admitted that Wagner “fully financed” the group, noting that the Concorde company from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s group “earned 80 billion rubles, about 850 million euros.”
“I am sure that no one has stolen anything or a little during these operations,” he said, assuring that he would take care to check everything. It should be remembered that before the conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin denied for many years any connection with the Wagner group, which, apart from Dombas in eastern Ukraine, was active in the Syrian war and several conflicts in Africa.
Where is Surovikin?
According to Reuters, on Thursday, the Kremlin refused to give details of the whereabouts of Russian General Sergei Surovykin, whose whereabouts have not been disclosed since the uprising. Recall that this Wednesday, the US revealed that Sergei Churovikin knew about Prigozhin’s plans against the Kremlin. However, American intelligence is trying to understand that the general helped plan the actions of the head of the Wagner group.
Surovykin – dubbed ‘General Armageddon’ by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian war – has been missing since Saturday after appearing on video and imploring Prigozhin to cancel his “march for justice”.
According to the British News Agency, in the recording, Surovikin “appeared tired” and is believed to have done so “under duress”. Since then, unconfirmed reports have surfaced that he is being interrogated by security forces.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred questions about Churovikin to the Defense Ministry, which has yet to issue a statement.
On Thursday, contrary to all the reports, in an interview with Baza quoted by Sky News, Surovikhin’s daughter Veronika said that no one had arrested her father and that he was fine. In other words, the detention reports were “nothing but rumours”.
And U.S. officials believe other Russian generals were involved in the mutiny last weekend.