With European elections already on the horizon, a poll conducted by Euronews in association with Ipsos has revealed a rise in support for the far-right among voters and a decline for the Greens and Liberals. However, the accounts won't change the arithmetic of the European Parliament, given the pro-EU coalition's centrist majority.
Support for the far-right is likely to increase in the next European Parliament, but pro-European parties still hold 63% of parliamentary seats, according to an Ipsos poll for Euronews, published today (19 March).
The survey, conducted among nearly 26,000 people in countries representing 96% of the EU population, is the first to be conducted ahead of elections scheduled for June.
The predicted results do not change the basic calculus of the European Parliament, where centrist parties will continue to muster the majorities needed to confirm officials and pass legislation, the research says.
However, far-right and Eurosceptic parties could make significant gains, leading in polls in four of the EU's six founding countries – while uncertainty about party affiliation suggests much is still at stake.
With nearly 400 million voters, the election to appoint 720 MEPs, which will take place from June 6 to 9, 2024, will be one of the largest democratic exercises in the world.
Despite five tumultuous years in which Europe has faced pandemics, high prices and full-scale war, Ipsos predicts surprisingly little change in the fortunes of the EU's two main political parties.
The number of MEPs held by the centre-right EPP and the left-wing Socialists is expected to change by only a few percentage points from their current levels.
In third place comes a weakened Renewed Europe, Emmanuel Macron's liberal coalition – with far-right identity groups and ascendant ECR Eurosceptics relegating the Greens to sixth place.
One of the first major tasks of the next European Parliament is to approve the President of the European Commission. The results are therefore good news for incumbent Ursula van der Leyen, whose EPP group secured 177 of the 720 MEPs and is poised for an easy referendum.
The results suggest that van der Leyen could secure the necessary majority with the support of the two largest pro-European parties, including the Socialists and the Greens, or the Liberals.
With 30 extra seats planned between the IT and the ECR, the far-right will enjoy more than just a surge – but it also includes support in countries often considered pro-European.
The National Front, the French party led by Marine Le Pen, is expected to win ten additional seats in the European Parliament, joining Germany's CDU/CSU.
In the November 2023 national election, surprise winner Geert Wilders' party in the Netherlands will win nine seats.
Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party is predicted to win 24 of Italy's 76 seats, while in Belgium, two right-wing parties, Flemish Interest and NVA, are predicted to win three each. The German AfD party is projected to have 15 MEPs, placing it in third place nationally.
Looking at Portugal, according to the poll, the winning party will be the PSD, which is part of the PBS group in the European Parliament. The Social Democrats will elect 8 MEPs, PS 6, Chega 3, IL one and BE one.
The wins could have ramifications for European policy-making, with hard lines on immigration and 'green laws', academic Cass Mudé told Euronews.
But while the far right is not always united on issues like support for Ukraine, Brexit-like withdrawal is not on the agenda, said Mudde, a professor at the University of Georgia who specializes in European populist extremism.
“In general, there would be less support for deepening European integration,” he told Euronews in an email, but added that “most far-right parties today favor change rather than leaving the EU.”
Between February 23 and March 5, Ipsos interviewed 25,916 people in 18 countries over the phone and online. These results were then weighted to ensure representativeness and complemented with desk research for the remaining nine smaller EU members.
But there are still three months to go – these are predictions, not results. Even after the election, there may be a change in alliances or new alliances may be formed.
An important point to note is the role of “unaffiliated” MEPs who do not belong to any defined group, which the study suggests may amount to around 10% of elected legislators.