Resistance to military rule in Myanmar has been defined by optimism.
When the military first seized power on February 1, 2021, the mass peaceful protests that emerged were reminiscent of a jubilant street party. The demonstrators sang in the streets, dressed in ridiculous costumes and carried comic signs.
There were no illusions about what might happen next in a country where the armed forces have a history of brutality against those who oppose them. One of the demonstrators said that they would face 100 or even 1,000 deaths to defeat the army.
Two years later, some civilians have taken up arms and joined the armed ethnic groups that have been fighting for greater autonomy for years. The country now seems embroiled in full blown civil war and the army is increasingly using air power and heavy weaponry against their poorly armed opponents.
Some estimates The death toll in 2022 is estimated at more than 20,000, including civilians and combatants – second only to Ukraine – but those determined to remove the generals from power remain hopeful.
said Albert, a battalion commander in the anti-coup Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, which operates mainly in Kayah State and southern Shan State, near the Thai border.
“There will be a breakthrough in 2023 if we can maintain the current momentum.”
new analysis (PDFReleased on the eve of the anniversary of the coup by Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, found that there had been some 10,000 attacks and armed clashes between the military and opponents since the coup, and violent incidents in at least 78 per cent of townships between July and December 2022. .
While this indicates that the regime is no close to tightening its grip on the country, it does not appear to be about to collapse either.
A new balance has emerged. “There must be significant developments on both sides to change the current impasse,” said Min Zaw O, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, who has years of experience in the Myanmar conflict.
“The scene remained the same in 2022,” he said, adding that the army had failed to return most theaters to “the status quo before the coup,” while the resistance was unable to “secure strategic areas.”
The anti-coup forces sought to control several major urban centers – such as Madin mobay in southern Shan State, and Kawkareik and Kyondoe in Kayin State. But while they often succeed in driving out armed forces, the military’s increasing use of remote artillery and air power makes it difficult to hold on to the territory they gain.
“Air strikes have a big impact on this… We want to control cities and urban areas but without air defense it is very difficult,” said Tao Ni, a spokesman for the Karen National Union (KNU), one of Myanmar’s oldest and most powerful ethnic armed groups, which Allied with the pro, even if we can capture an area, it is difficult to hold without air defense.Resistance to democracy widely known as the PDF (PDF).
Min Zaw Ou also noted that the success rate of attacks on “army fortified positions” is about 40-45 percent, but that resistance groups are often unable to hold and defend captured bases or outposts. Instead, they often choose to destroy it, as evidenced by the recent burning of an outpost in the town of Baulach, Kayah State.
“The nature of the opposition attack is still a guerrilla attack,” Min Zaw said.
Some conflict analysts have argued that resistance groups should continue to clamp down on the regime through guerrilla attacks, rather than attempting to seize territory. Anthony Davis, security analyst for Jane’s Defense publication, warned in November against “the early attempt to move from guerrilla tactics to semi-conventional operations”.
Scale conversion
Min Zaw Oh said there are four “hurdles” the resistance must overcome, including better access to weapons (only 10 percent of resistance fighters are estimated to have automatic weapons), securing the support of more powerful armed ethnic groups and improving the chain of command. .
He says the support of neighboring countries such as China and Thailand is also essential.
“Without overcoming these obstacles, the opposition will not be able to bring about a shift in its favour,” he said.
While some major armed ethnic organizations have thrown their weight behind the pro-democracy movement—such as the Karen National Union, the Chin National Front (CNF), the Karenni Army, and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)—others have been more circumspect.
Instead, the country’s most powerful non-state armed group, the United Wa State Army, took advantage of the military’s weak position to demand more formal recognition of the territories it controls. But in a potential game changer, Two other influential groups They increasingly showed signs of collaborating with anti-regime forces.
Albert says he has seen improvements for the KNDF in 2022 over the previous year, including a more established chain of command, better access to modern weaponry and more professional military training.
But he says there have been setbacks as well, such as the loss of the first element of surprise, when the regime was caught off guard by large-scale armed uprisings against its rule.
“In the past, the military junta underestimated us… Now they are well prepared. They plant many landmines around their bases. It takes weeks for the comeback to attack them now.”
“And we have to attack it quickly and retreat because after 30 or 45 minutes … military planes will come.”
In recent months, the military has stepped up its air campaign, shifting from its usual policy of using air strikes mostly to support ground forces or terrorize civilian communities it believes are aiding resistance fighters.
Now, it bombs more regularly high level targets, often in the absence of ground combat, such as the KIO event in November, CNF headquarters in early January and PDF base in late January.
Anti-regime armed groups and human rights activists have repeatedly called on the international community to declare a no-fly zone or an embargo on the supply of jet fuel to Myanmar. An investigation by Amnesty International last year showed that even fuel sent to Myanmar ostensibly for commercial use was being accessed by the military.
Even in the face of this powerful attack, the resistance’s optimism was still evident.
“We hoped the army would use airstrikes on us one day,” said Myo Thura Ko Ko, a spokesman for the Cobra Colemen Hybrid Command, which operates under the KNU and the PDF. He sees the regime’s increasing reliance on air strikes as evidence that it is losing ground.
He added, “The army uses air strikes when its forces are losing on the battlefield or when their morale is low.”
Htet Ni, a CNF spokesperson, agrees.
We have to continue our revolution even if the worst happens. There is nothing else to say. And the stronger the revolution becomes, the more air strikes the army will launch.”
Htet Ni says the increasing reliance on air strikes has pushed existing armed ethnic groups closer to their new allies in the PDF.
“You have created more unity among us… There will be no retreat. This is our chance to overturn the army, so we will do battle with the people.”
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