Multiple bands reportedly will not pursue Lamar Jackson. Who’s left, what might the deals look like?
After the Ravens placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson yesterday, making him eligible to negotiate with other teams, reports began to emerge that five teams in particular would not be pursuing him.
The teams mentioned are the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders, although there was a later report by ESPN’s Diana Rossini He said the Raiders “didn’t expire any QB options—including Lamar Jackson.”
If the reports are accurate, what teams might be interested in signing Jackson? (As a reminder, if Jackson signs an offer sheet with another team, the Ravens will have the opportunity to game. If they choose not to, the Ravens will get their next first-round draft pick.)
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell has named 16 teams that should consider trading for Jackson, who according to CBS Sports’ Josena Anderson is seeking a contract with More money guaranteed than Deshaun Watson’s $230 millionn. Barnwell’s roster included the five teams mentioned above. Here’s a look at his other six best teams, along with his thoughts on what the deal might look like:
The simplest scenario is for the Jets to sign Jackson to an offer sheet and send the 13th overall pick in 2023 and a first-rounder in 2024. They can try to reduce the cost of the deal by including [wide receiver Elijah] Moore, who may need a change of scenery after a disappointing 2022. Crows can try to get to it [quarterback Zach] Wilson is in a deal to develop him as a reclamation project, but Wilson could potentially bring a mid-to-late pick if New York includes him in the pack.”
“If the Ravens are going to take two of Jackson’s first-round picks, the best offer they’re likely to get will come from the Colts. There’s a chance they’ll get two top-five draft picks as part of that deal (if bottoms in Indy in 2023). Ready to move on from the 2019 MVP, the #4 pick will be a huge building block as Baltimore GM [Eric] DeCosta is planning for the team’s future.”
If the Bucs want to avoid sending first-round picks to the Ravens for Jackson, they can include an important player by adding [wide receiver Chris] Godwin, which would help create space at the cost of losing a star receiver. At 27, Goodwin would be worth more than a first-round draft pick in a potential trade, but it would probably take Goodwin and his first to get Jackson to Tampa.”
Bears get: QB Lamar Jackson, 2023 22nd overall pick (from the Ravens), 2024 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick (from the Colts)
Ravens acquire: QB Justin Fields (from the Bears), fourth pick in 2023, first round pick 2024 (from the Colts)
Colts getting: 2023 first overall pick (from the Bears), 2024 fourth-round pick, 2025 fourth-round pick (from the Ravens)
That’s one way each team can land as many as they want. The Bears will get three first-round picks for the top pick and ship two of them immediately to the Ravens for Jackson, while also landing second- and third-round field picks. The Colts will trade from fourth place to first place and sacrifice their two top picks in 2024 (and their third in 2025) to get their pick of quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Ravens will trade Jackson with their first-round pick and touchdown each of the fields and two first-round Colts, including the No. 4 overall pick. A fourth-place finish will give the Ravens a chance to either trade for more picks or Going after the best defensive player available.”
“The Texans’ dream scenario would be holding on to the No. 2 overall pick and trading the 12th pick as the focal point of Jackson’s collection. … Was the No. 2 pick? Landing there would give the Ravens the ability to draft Jackson’s replacement directly, be it Bryce Young or Will Lives or CJ Stroud [Anthony] Richardson. Most advanced draft models suggest that picks later in the first round and early in the second round are more efficient picks after accounting for cost, but the Ravens may not be able to get a quarterback with these selections. It’s a fun idea, but the Texans would probably prefer to stick with the No. 2 pick and send the No. 12 and 2024 to Baltimore. “
It’s possible that the Ravens would want to land a base deal for a No. 11 overall and 2024 first-round pick from the Titans, especially given how Tennessee has turned in its roster. I’m not sure. [quarterback Ryan] Tannehill has great commercial value considering his base salary of $27 million in 2023, although the Ravens could go after him as Jackson’s replacement after he gets cut.”
Why the Hawks’ supposed interest in Jackson never made sense
As discussed on Yesterday Late at Work, the Falcons were the team most often mentioned as a potential freshman for Jackson. That speculation seemed validated when Heavy On Sports’ Matt Lombardo reported yesterday that “Lamar Jackson’s conversation between the Ravens and Falcons has progressed tremendously in Indianapolis” at the Combine.
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