Moldova, a tiny former Soviet republic nestled between Romania and Ukraine, faces a decisive moment for its geopolitical future this Sunday. The country of about 2.5 million people will go to the polls to elect a new president and decide whether it wants to amend its constitution to become a member of the European Union (EU).
Despite its European aspirations, Moldova is deeply divided between two opposing powers: the West and Russia. “Moldova can be defined as a country divided between the West and the East,” says Kamil Callas, researcher at the Center for Oriental Studies (OSW) in Warsaw and author of a book on relations between Moldova and the European Union. Economic dependence on Moscow, the presence of a significant Russophone minority representing 20% to 30% of the population, and the presence of the separatist region of Transnistria, where some 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed, reinforce this division.
According to Alexandru Flencia, former Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister for Reunification, “the Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated internal divisions, leading to a polarization between those who support European integration and those who lean towards a more neutral position towards Russia.” Flenchea told El Confidencial newspaper that “politicians, and by extension voters, are divided into pro-European or pro-Russian, and as a result, make them anti-European”.
According to a recent study by the Center for Sociology and Marketing Research (CBSAXA), in the presidential election, opinion polls are dominated by incumbent President Maia Sandhu, who is leading with around 36.1% support. Backed by the Socialist Party (PSRM) led by ex-president Igor Dodan, a politician with strong ties to Moscow, Sandu, who is running for a second term, faces former attorney general Alexandru Stoyanoklou as his main opponent. Known for his criticism of LGBTQI+ rights and European politics, Dodon has taken to social media to warn that “if the ruling party Action and Solidarity (PAS) continues in power, there will be no country or church.”
Despite his popularity, Chandu faces a significant challenge with inflation, which has already cost him votes. According to Flencia, his popularity is due to his foreign policy, success in European integration and management of relations with Ukraine.
A referendum on membership of the European Union
In addition to the presidential elections, Moldovans will vote in a referendum on EU membership. The question on the ballot is clear: “Do you support amending the constitution to allow the Republic of Moldova to join the European Union?” According to CBSAXA polls, a “yes” vote for EU membership is expected to get around 63% of the vote.
However, a segment of the population views European membership with suspicion, associating it with the loss of traditional values. Olesya, who lives in Transnistria and now lives in Georgia, said: “If I ask if I want [aderir à UE]I would say probably not. I am against same-sex marriage and raising children that way.
Joseph Borrell, head of European diplomacy, warned of a growing Russian disinformation campaign aimed at exploiting divisions in Moldovan society. In recent weeks, reports of bribery to influence the vote have emerged, with Moldovan police identifying more than $15 million in Russian funds transferred to the bank accounts of 130,000 citizens.
Misinformation and polarization intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with many Moldovans opting for a neutral stance, wanting to avoid conflict with the EU and Russia. According to Flencia, “It cannot be said that all Moldovans have become pro-Russian, but there is a growing faction of neutrals who advocate friendship with both the East and the West.”
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Moldova began to take its first steps towards European integration. In 1994, the country signed the Association and Cooperation Agreement with the European Union, and in 1995 became the first country in the former Soviet Union, in addition to the Baltic States, to be admitted to the Council of Europe. Ironically, it was a communist government led by the Moldovan Communist Party that in 2005, after winning elections, announced Moldova’s commitment to greater European integration.
In the days before the election, the president of the European Commission, Ursula van der Leyen, visited Chisinau, where she presented an “economic development plan for Moldova” with the aim of investing 1.8 billion euros in the country in the next period. Three years. The visit highlights Moldova’s strategic importance to the EU, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine and growing Russian influence in the region.
With the vote soon to be decided, Moldova’s future is at stake, and the country faces a dilemma between embracing Europe or maintaining ties with Russia, a choice that could define its geopolitical course for years to come.