Three weeks after taking over from Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has swung polls in five key states in her favor and widened her lead over Donald Trump nationally.
A new Cook Political Report poll of seven key states shows Kamala Harris making gains in Pennsylvania (+1), Michigan (+3), Wisconsin (+3), North Carolina (+1) and Arizona (+2). .
Georgia is in a technical tie and in Nevada, Donald Trump is leading (+3). Here, Harris closed the gap to six points in three weeks. In May, a Cook Political Report poll showed Trump leading by 1 to 9 points in all of these states except Wisconsin, where the race was tied. “Harris’ success in reaching the gap was driven by his consolidation of the Democratic base and increased support among independent voters,” analyst Amy Walter wrote in the report.
The shift is also coming in Florida, where new polling data from Florida Atlantic University shows Donald Trump leading by three points, half of his advantage over Biden. According to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Aug. 6, the candidate’s advantage among African-American voters, white women with degrees and independent women increased by 20 to 30 points.
A recent study The New York Times/Siena College also shows a “dramatic swing” to the Democratic Party, with Kamala Harris leading by four percentage points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (50% vs. Trump’s 46%). the ‘mouse’ Financial TimesBased on multiple polls, Harris has a lead of 1.4 points in Michigan and 0.6 points in Wisconsin and a tie in Pennsylvania, where Trump previously led Biden by 4.4 points.
Data from high-profile state polls provide stronger indicators than national averages, but the global trend also benefits Democrats. The FT Harris leads with 47.4% to Donald Trump’s 45.5%.
Kamala Harris now has 46.2% of voting intentions nationally, compared to 43.5% for Donald Trump, aggregate data from the site FiveThirtyEight shows. The advantage is 2.7 points, which shows that since the end of July, the candidate was ahead by just 0.8%.
In August, Morning Consult, Qantas Polls and News, Pew Research Center, Big Village, YouGov, Activote and Emerson College polls have Harris leading by 1 to 5 points. The Beacon Research/Fox News and JL Partners/PollDailymail show Trump ahead by 1 and 2 points respectively.
In a session analyzing the impact of the shift from Biden to Harris, Morning Consult analyst Cameron Easley highlighted that more Democrats are now excited about the 2024 elections. This difference is less pronounced among younger age groups, who vote at historically low percentages.
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