Japanese and Chinese leaders visit opposing capitals in the Ukraine War

If you ever needed an illustration of how the war in Ukraine could reverberate in Asia, the table of Japanese and Chinese leaders provides an excellent example.

Both of them make strategic foreign visits to both sides of the conflict.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is in Kyiv promising unwavering support for the President of Ukraine, with talk of reconstruction and humanitarian aid.

Meanwhile, China’s Xi Jinping is in Moscow and Russia’s Vladimir Putin has called him a friend and partner. China may insist it is neutral, but it seems more inclined to Moscow than the honest broker at the moment.

On Tuesday, Xi said China would prioritize its relations with Russia, calling the two countries “major neighboring powers”.

Given the events in Moscow, the optics and timing of Mr. Kishida’s parallel flight is remarkable. So what can we read in it?

It is rare for a Japanese leader to take an unannounced overseas trip, and Mr. Kishida is the first to visit a country in conflict since World War II.

The visit was kept secret until before his arrival early Tuesday morning, and officials cited security concerns.

Japan’s foreign ministry said he would “show respect for the courage and patience of the Ukrainian people who stand up to defend their homeland…and show solidarity and unwavering support” during his visit.

The statement added that Kishida would also demonstrate his “absolute rejection of Russia’s unilateral change of the status quo through invasion and force.”

Kishida is under increasing pressure to visit Ukraine from his ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Until today, he was the only G7 leader not to visit since Russia launched its invasion last year and there were calls to leave before he presided over the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May.

He has already pulled off one strategic diplomatic coup by holding a summit with the president of South Korea last week in Tokyo — the first time that has happened in over a decade. Normalizing relations with Seoul, sharing intelligence and showing a united front against North Korea would all reassure Japan’s strategic ally, the United States.

There is no doubt that a visit to Ukraine would be welcomed by Washington as well.

Part of the Chinese leader’s ongoing visit to Moscow is an effort to expand the country’s global influence. The presence of Japan’s leader in Ukraine at the same time sends a strong message about where they stand in this geopolitical turmoil.

This is no mean feat, Japan has a lot of balancing to do especially in its relationship with China.

Last month, the two countries held security talks here in Tokyo for the first time in four years. Beijing said it was disturbed by the Japanese military buildup, and Tokyo criticized China’s military ties with Russia and its suspected use of spy balloons.

These are the world’s second and third largest economies and an open channel of communication is key despite the current tensions.

Japan also has its own concerns about the war in Ukraine. There is deep concern about the potential parallels between a Russian invasion and a worst-case scenario of Chinese military aggression against Taiwan – which would undoubtedly attract Japan.

We’re not there yet and we may never be there, but it tells us exactly where every leader has chosen to be on Tuesday.