From Arctic ice to fighting in Ukraine

Infinite “Aurora Borealis”, Frederick Edwin Church, 1865 (Smithsonian American Art Museum)

Dr

Temperatures in the Arctic Circle have risen 20 degrees Celsius above normal. A large number of climate scientists believe that at the current rate, global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C, and that it would be appropriate to declare a climate emergency.

It has been exactly one month since I spoke at the Munich Security Conference. Since then, so many remarkable things have happened, so quickly, that it is worth comparing my predictions of a month ago with current events.

There have been tremendous changes in the global climate system. By this I mean actual weather events and climate scientists’ understanding of those events. The main message I wanted to get across in Munich was that the global climate system is largely dependent on what happens within the Arctic Circle. In ancient times, the Arctic Circle climate system was different from the global climate system. The wind blew in the predictable opposite direction; But due to increased human interference, the separation between the Arctic climate system and the global climate system no longer exists.

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