Back to the ’90s: Released in 1993, four years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the song “Things Only Get Better” practically sums up the decade that saw the end of apartheid and the arrival of democracy in Eastern Europe. Peace came to Northern Ireland and the Oslo Accords promised an end to the conflict between Israel and Palestine.
‘Zeitgeist’ favors pacifists and democrats: Now, it’s the turn of nationalists, warmongers and conspiracy theorists to blow the wind – conflict in the Middle East is bad news for liberals and useful for Putin and Trump.
Let’s see: The risk of Russia prevailing in a war with Ukraine in 2024 is growing. In the Middle East, hope resulting from the Abraham Peace Accords between Israel and several Arab countries has been dashed by Hamas attacks. A wider war in the Middle East is more plausible than a revived peace process.
In the United States, Joe Biden’s presidency is in jeopardy as Donald Trump is currently favored to win the presidency in 2024: recent polls give him a comfortable lead in most of the swing states that will decide the 2024 elections.
All these ominous events help cloud the global political environment. And they are fed daily.
The Gaza war forced the US to divert time and resources away from Ukraine. In some cases, there is direct competition for explosives. Ukraine suffers from a shortage of weapons and now competes with Israel for scarce supplies. Both countries need air defense.
The West’s weak ability to mobilize global support for Ukraine has been undermined by ‘Global South’ anger over US support for Israel. These developments came at a time when the Ukrainian war effort was already faltering. The counteroffensive by the Kiev government was largely unsuccessful.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the idea that the war is reaching a stalemate. But predictions of stagnation may be too optimistic. Russia has become a war economy and is likely to gain a growing advantage in terms of weapons and troop numbers in the coming year. Russian forces will resume shelling of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in the coming months.
Devastated Ukraine remains dependent on the West for arms and financial aid. But Kiev’s Western backers have failed to ramp up their arms production to counter the Russian war machine.
With Donald Trump increasingly likely to return to the White House and leave Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has even more reason to fight hard next year.
Trump’s chances of victory increased due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Biden needs young, progressive, Arab-American voters to vote. But many are angry about his administration’s support for Israel. If progressives stay home or vote for fringe candidates, the election could swing toward Trump.
Finally, China: Xi Jinping’s ambitions for Taiwan – Washington analysts believe he has ordered the Chinese military to prepare to occupy the island in 2027. In an effort to deter China, Biden has repeatedly pledged to defend Taiwan. But with the US distracted and divided, Xi sees an opportunity to increase pressure on the island over the next year. This would add a security crisis in East Asia to those affecting Europe and the Middle East.
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