The lack of solid defensive lines, tired and under-rotated soldiers and an increasingly limited army create an explosive combination that could have disastrous consequences for Ukraine.
Since the start of the war in 2014, it has been a bastion of Ukrainian defense in the Donbass. Avtivka was equipped with a complex defense network that allowed its defenders to withstand the most intense Russian attacks. But after months of fierce fighting, the small industrial town has fallen and Russian forces are advancing at a pace that worries Ukrainian commanders. At the same time, political indecision in the United States and the European Union, as well as a shortage of soldiers and ammunition, leads experts to warn that this is actually the most critical moment of the war in Kiev.
“This was the most difficult moment of the war, after the initial shock, when we doubted that Ukraine could withstand the initial impact of the Russian forces. Ammunition was scarce and the soldiers were tired. They should have been ahead a long time ago,” explains Professor José Felipe Pinto, an expert in international relations.
On February 17, the Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Chirsky, announced that he had ordered the soldiers defending Avdiivka to withdraw to “the most favorable defensive lines”. city. Since then, Ukrainian forces have proven somewhat incapable of stopping Russian advances on new positions. Only in the last few days, the Russian army managed to capture the towns of Sjeverno, Lastochkyne and Stepove. Currently, Orlivka and Berdychi are the scene of violent fighting.
an officer Ukrainian in stock On the ground, he notes that there are “significant deficiencies” regarding the presence of concrete or wooden fortifications on the part of Kiev's forces. In many cases, the military guarantees, the construction of these defensive positions is dictated by the units actively engaged in combat. Unlike what happened with the Russians in the summer, the Ukrainians did not build their “Surovikin lines” with multiple layers of trenches. A joint effort between the civilian and the military is necessary to solve this problem.
“Unlike the Russians who defend in line, we in the West defend in defensive positions. That's what Ukraine tried to do, it used cities as defensive structures. However, the Russians were able to overcome these defenses because they used a weapon that allowed them to fully balance the Ukrainian defenses,” explains Major General Agostinho Costa.
The ruins of a statue honoring Soviet soldiers in Avdiivka (Kostya Liberov/Lipkos via Getty Images)
The weapons in question were FAB-1500 bombs, launched by Su-34 bombers. A bomb with 1,500 kg of explosives, a GPS instrument and winged munitions can accurately hit targets. The explosion of these explosives was so powerful that it was used by Russian forces to destroy bunkers. However, in recent weeks, the frequency with which they are used has increased significantly, with the Russian Air Force conducting dozens of missions a day over the region.
Moscow has deployed its air force in significant numbers for the first time since the start of the Russian invasion. However, this exposes Russian aircraft to a higher attrition rate. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in February alone, 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed in combat. The aircraft reportedly shot down included 10 Su-34 fighter-bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets and a Perev A-50 equipped with long-range radars.
“The biggest challenge for the Ukrainians is to nullify the Russian air advantage. We are seeing something that we have not seen in these two years, the Su-34 coming to the front. This is only happening because the Ukrainians do not have anti-aircraft missiles, and the Russians are trying to target the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses,” said Major General Agostinho Costa. Explains.
The Ukrainian president himself has said that the Russians are gaining in many areas of the front line due to the lack of air defense capabilities near the front line. But Ukrainian needs go beyond anti-aircraft missiles. Ammunition of all calibers must be rationed and used judiciously by the Ukrainian infantry. “We are witnessing the exhaustion and militarization of Western capabilities. Western production capacity is clearly insufficient”, exemplifies Agostinho Costa.
A US-made Bradley armored vehicle on the outskirts of Avdiivka, Donetsk region (Vitaly Nosach/Ukraine Global Images via Getty Images)
Part of the problem is politics. The European Union has yet to deliver half of the million weapons it promised a year ago, and the United States is embroiled in a political battle that is blocking approval of a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. December. Joseph Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, admitted this month that part of the problem is not just the inability of the European military industry, but also that part of the weapons produced in Europe continue to be exported to other countries.
Although Western military production has increased by about 40% since the start of the war, Borrell says that by the end of this year, the group should reach annual production of 1.4 million 155mm rounds. At the same time, the US hopes to reach 1.2 million rounds of ammunition per year by 2024. A figure far below the Ukrainian's needs may arrive too late on the ground.
“Despite the near consensus, Western support has always come too late. We must realize that words and promises do not win wars. Winning a war is military-based support”, Jose Filipe Pinto assured.
Another major problem for Ukraine is the number of soldiers. The war did not stop, and the battles in Avdiivka were expensive lessons for the Ukrainian army. For months, Ukraine concealed the number of soldiers killed. Recently, Zelensky admitted that 31,000 lives have been lost since February 24, 2022. However, the leader did not want to confirm the number of casualties, which would not help Russian military planning, but the number is significant.
The problem of shortage of players is not new for Ukraine. In the past, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, then head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, warned of the need to recruit half a million new soldiers. But the issue is politically controversial in the country. On February 17, several trade associations sent a request to parliament to reform the mobilization law so that the economy does not come to a complete standstill. “A balance between the military front and the economy is necessary”, the organizations appeal.
“It's a difficult balance, but mobilization will eventually happen. Ukraine suffers from the same virtues and flaws as Western democracies. This kind of legislation should be widely debated in parliament, unlike in Russia, where Putin wants, can and commands,” said Major General Isidro de Morais Pereira. remembered.
A Ukrainian soldier watches the sunset in the village of Karlivka on the outskirts of Avdiivka (Narciso Contreras/Anatolu via Getty Images)
In this field, Russia has a greater advantage than Ukraine. According to a study published by the organization Meduza, which analyzed data from genealogical registers in Russia, the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine was 83 thousand soldiers. This figure indicates that Moscow is losing 3,900 soldiers per month, so many lives that Vladimir Putin has proven to be comfortable with. Russian military blogger Andrei Morozov claims that the Russian army lost 16,000 soldiers in the Battle of Avdiivka alone. Also, more than 600 armored vehicles were destroyed in the fighting in the city for more than four months.
Two years after a large-scale Russian invasion, the situation in Ukraine is “serious but not hopeless,” says the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). ISW says Russian advances in eastern Ukraine have come at a high price. “More Russian soldiers may have died in the capture of Avdiivka than in the entire Soviet Union-Afghanistan war.”
“Ukraine did not lose, there is no reason for Ukraine to lose [a guerra]. The Russians are adapting to a protracted war effort in Ukraine, but they are not the World War II Red Army hordes surrounded by victory flags that Putin and his propagandists pretend they are.”
For experts, this may indicate that Vladimir Putin is ready to take advantage of this moment of weakness in Ukraine, which could be dangerous on the battlefield. “This is the most difficult moment of the war for Ukraine. If measures are not taken, a catastrophe can happen,” emphasizes Isidro de Morais Pereira.
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