Attitudes toward President Vladimir Putin in Russia appear to be shifting toward negative sentiments since Ukrainian troops began infiltrating Russian territory, according to FilterLabs AI, a firm that tracks public opinion in the country through social media and other online analytics. Publications.
In recent weeks, since Ukrainian forces entered the Kursk region in western Russia, there has been a marked increase in criticism of the Russian government, and Putin in particular, among Russian social media users. While state media tried to give events a positive spin by focusing on the Russian government’s humanitarian response, social media told a different story.
Many of the posts analyzed by FilterLabs AI suggest that the Ukrainian breakthrough is seen as a failure of the Russian government, with full blame placed on Vladimir Putin. Accurately gauging public opinion in an authoritarian country like Russia is always a challenge, as people tend to respond to the government’s whims. To overcome this limitation, FilterLabs uses computer models to analyze sentiments expressed in comments on social networks, online forums and news sites, allowing for a more realistic view of the opinions of ordinary Russian citizens.
Last year, Putin’s popularity suffered a significant setback following a short-lived armed insurgency led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian paramilitary force. However, the shift in sentiment was even more apparent from the beginning of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk. “Putin’s response to this intrusion was seen as inappropriate at best and insulting at worst,” said Jonathan Teubner, CEO of FilterLabs.
Although attitudes toward Putin remain largely positive in Moscow, where government control over the media and public debate remains tight, the president’s capital public opinion is deteriorating, albeit somewhat more slowly than in other parts of the country. In Russia’s most peripheral regions, frustration with the Kremlin is growing, according to the analysis.
However, official US sources caution that it is too early to judge whether the decline in Putin’s reputation will last. They recall that after the end of Prigogine’s rebellion, Putin’s popularity quickly rebounded, demonstrating his consistent ability to manipulate public opinion in his favor. However, the permanent loss of popularity will complicate the Kremlin’s ability to continue the war in Ukraine.
“It is difficult to determine the impact of the Ukrainian counterattack at this stage,” Teubner noted. “But of course it was a shock and, for Putin, an embarrassment. Kremlin propaganda, maneuvers and distractions have their limits, especially when bad news spreads widely across Russia.
Sentiment toward Putin has fallen sharply in areas focused on the Kremlin’s military recruitment efforts. The Kremlin’s recruitment strategy depends on its ability to manage the perception of war. If Putin’s popularity and prestige in these key regions declines — especially if Russians begin to believe the war is going badly — the Kremlin will have more difficulty replenishing its military ranks, FilterLabs analysis says.
The Kremlin continues to exert a strong influence on coverage of the war by the national media, with some outlets highlighting negative news. However, as Teubner noted, regional media are less likely to sugarcoat the news.
FilterLabs also monitors Russian disinformation. According to Teubner, the agency identified that after the Ukrainian counteroffensive began, the Kremlin launched a propaganda campaign targeting Russia’s border regions in an attempt to control the story. The campaign, reminiscent of Soviet propaganda, warned that Ukrainian psychological operations were targeting Russians.
Even as local news sites spread the propaganda, they mixed it with reports of Ukrainian infiltration, information that was hard to find in Moscow. In the Soviet Union, this technique of mixing false news with propaganda became known as “bad herring,” Teubner said.
A clear example of this was an article that, while displaying paintings glorifying Russian military might, also reported on forced artillery fire by Ukrainian troops in Kursk.
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