The recent Ukrainian military incursion into Kursk, which has already reached at least 74 locations and 1,000 kilometers of Russian territory, has brought a new level of complexity to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This surprise attack proved that the Kremlin, which until then had been seen as practically impregnable, was vulnerable to attack. This type of Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory has not been seen since World War II, raising questions about Russia’s ability to defend its territorial integrity.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi, the incursion should not be considered an attempt at military aggression, but a “legitimate measure” aimed at improving the security of Ukrainian citizens located across the border. Tykhyi emphasized: “Ukraine is not Russia, so our country does not need other people’s property … We want to protect the lives of our people.”
Future Scenarios: Resistance, pullback or total withdrawal
As the invasion of Kursk challenges Russian defenses and intensifies the pressure of war, experts have identified three possible scenarios for Ukraine’s future after the offensive.
- Resistance and defense of territory
The first option is for Ukraine to try to resist and defend captured territory. This scenario would require an increase in troop numbers and mobilization of arms. “If Ukraine chooses this option, it will give Russia more time and ability to cut supply routes and encircle or engage Ukrainian forces,” Lt. Gen. Francisco Gunn Bamboles warned in an interview with El Confidential. According to Pambols, expanding Ukrainian lines will increase vulnerability, making this choice particularly dangerous.
- Partial retreat to save time
A second option is to withdraw part of Ukraine, attracting Russian forces to the Kursk region. This strategy would stabilize areas in the east and south threatened by Russian advances. According to Ukrainian military spokesman Dmytro Lykovy, Russia has already started moving some units from the Zaporizhia and Dnipro regions to Kursk. A US official confirmed the Russian troop movement, although he did not provide specific details. The move will allow Ukraine to buy time in hopes of reaching a possible negotiation by the end of the year. The lieutenant general insisted that while retreating somewhat, Ukraine should choose a more favorable defensive zone, such as areas with natural barriers.
- Full and staggered withdrawal
A third scenario is wholesale and staggered withdrawal, with a return to recognized international borders. The move allows Ukraine to conserve resources and send a message to the Kremlin. This approach will strengthen Ukraine’s offensive capabilities in negotiations and is not limited to defending the country, but also threatens Russian interests in the national territory.
Russian Challenges and Vulnerabilities
The Kursk offensive exposed not only Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, but also Russia’s vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the lack of tactical intelligence capable of anticipating Ukrainian plans. “At a time when intelligence is the bedrock of the battlefield, surprise effect is unprecedented. Surveillance, image intelligence and signals intelligence are essential to create an accurate picture of the battlefield,” said Lt. Gen.
Ukraine was able to attack three different axes and gain operational depth, demonstrating a well-planned attack and not an isolated attack. Russia faces an additional difficulty when fighting on its own territory, which traditionally represents a strategic advantage for the invading country.
Nuclear threat
The success of the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory has brought back concerns about possible nuclear escalation. Last May, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he did not believe the world was headed for nuclear war, but would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if Russia’s territorial sovereignty was threatened. Putin has already threatened to use “all means at our disposal” if the West sends troops to help Ukraine in 2022.
The military expert said, “Russia’s weakness has increased, which is dangerous. One of the arguments for using nuclear weapons is the existential threat. As Ukraine moves toward Kursk and a nuclear power plant, nuclear power increases are possible.
The Kursk situation represents a critical point in the war, not only because of its direct military impact, but also because of its strategic and diplomatic implications.
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