“America is in Danger of Having a Dictatorship of the Minority.” For Jorge Fernández, a researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon, this is the biggest and most immediate danger for the United States.
All because of the design of the American political system, which is flawed. Nationally, but in every state. “Electoral systems and democracies are designed to guarantee the will of the majority”, but, in the case of the US, “there are a series of distortions” that “undermine democratic systems”.
Therefore, “America desperately needs institutional reform that changes the set of rules to make the system more balanced while protecting the rights of minorities.”
Election administration begins. It said, “Unlike most countries, it is created by an independent body, and in America it is politicized. This allows Republicans to draw their electoral map according to their interests.”
Shouldn’t Democrats do the same? “They do, but to a lesser extent, because Republicans have been crafting a strategy over 20 or 30 years. They’ve been exploiting the rules of the game, while Democrats have watched.” For George Fernandez these are “undemocratic tactics” because “parties contesting elections should not be the ones defining the electoral maps”.
And he gives another example: When Barack Obama wanted to replace Antonin Scalia, considered the most conservative of the Supreme Court justices (STJ), who died suddenly, he was prevented from doing so by Republicans. He has no legitimacy to do so as he is in the last year of his second term. However, Donald Trump appointed a judge to the STJ three months before the new election.
But there is another problem, says the analyst. “Parties have become too tightly and ideologically aligned in recent years.” “The American system, in which the president — and the president is not so powerful in terms of domestic politics as he appears — is designed to require fluid parties to have stable coalitions between moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans.”
“Over the years, it’s this flexibility that’s moved America and led the country to make major reforms,” ​​he says. And he gives the example of the “Voting Rights Act,” which in 1965, at the hands of Lyndon Baines Johnson, “authorized the greatest legislative act of the past 70 years,” granting blacks the same political rights.
“LBJ did it because moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans allowed it. Today that system is dead.” “Although factions persist within parties, they have become so extreme that the cost to members of their own party of allying with another party is so high that no one dares to create a two-party law.” Thus, “major reforms have been completely blocked and the country is at a complete standstill”.
George Fernandez believed that Joe Biden could be a modern-day LBJ in another dimension, just because the circumstances were different.
For now, “Even if Biden does nothing in 2020, he has accomplished an absolutely essential function for American democracy, which is to topple Trump.” And that, had it not been for the epidemic, he would have won re-election.
Now, 2024 will be decisive. “In 2024 there will be a political opportunity to move to the next stage, which will be thinking about the future”. Threats to America are structural rather than conjunctural.
Still, polls show Americans are more concerned about the economy and inflation. Americans complain, but they don’t know how lucky they are. “In some ways, Americans don’t have a point of comparison with the rest of the world to see how solid their economy is. It’s no coincidence that the dollar is stronger than the euro.”
Jorge Fernandez recalled that “the economy is strong and inflation is already starting to show signs of abating.” “Fortunately, the economy is very independent of the president’s power,” although the president’s decisions can benefit or harm him. “There are problems like this in America, and I think the economy is a small thing,” he concludes.
The midterm elections brought some relief to Democrats. This, if the party in power generally thinks that sacrifices are being made Middle AgesAnd the president’s popularity was at an alarmingly low level according to opinion polls.
“Trump is one of the big losers. My fear is that the defeat is not strong enough to knock him out of the game,” says Jorge Fernandez. All indications are that on Tuesday, November 15, Trump will present his front-runner in next year’s Republican primary. “Where you’re most likely to meet Ron DeSantis,” the governor of Florida.
In addition to falling business, “Trump has a very strong incentive for litigation.” “Procedures act as gas for your candidature”, he would say, which on the one hand is political harassment and on the other hand “it makes the work of the people involved”. “Investigating a former president is already complicated, but investigating a former president who has returned to politics is even more difficult.”
Ron DeSantis “had a huge win in Florida, and he’s a very popular governor. He’s a very interesting character. Tweet Where do you praise him? That’s when it went to the national stage.
“He starts on a moderate note, and we know he’s completely changed by the epidemic, he’s become a very different person. DeSantis, lonely and not a great group”, and labeled “crazy and radical, to me that’s a question mark. “There will never be a completely moderate candidate, especially in primaries, but, compared to Trump, it will feed this extremist faction”.
“Republican elites don’t know how to stop Trump in time, and they should have done it,” the researcher says. Both “Trump is unpredictable” and “Just as I think it’s possible for him to run and win, I think it’s possible for him to run and go badly”.
And then the Democratic Party decision. Joe Biden against Trump, it would be “an old man against another old man,” but “a candidate like DeSantis could take Biden to the carpet.” “Practical and charismatic, he’s in his prime,” while “Biden can’t do much at 82,” which he will be in 2024.
Not knowing who will be Joe Biden’s successor (he might be), “weakens” him. “Kamala Harris has conflicts”, “always from the right-wing line within the Democrats. And it’s not worth fooling ourselves, in 2020 she was elected because she was a woman and she was black. For her political qualities . From the beginning it is worth noting that it will not have a great future, it soon faded”.
Joe Biden still has two years to prove his worth. And, after all, the Democrats lost, but less than expected. Republicans won, but not by as much as predicted. Control of the House of Representatives has been lost, but not the Senate — and the results will have to wait until December in Georgia, where rules dictate new returns when no one gets 50% or more of the vote, as happened there. .
But, “America doesn’t just need a fresh, young, energetic face. More than that, it needs substantial change.” A conversation with Jorge Fernandez.
“Hardcore explorer. Extreme communicator. Professional writer. General music practitioner. Prone to fits of apathy.”