Joe Biden took part in a conference call last Monday, where he was asked the inevitable question: What do you think about the Israeli offensive that began hours ago in Lebanon? The North American president was laconic in his response. “I’m comfortable with the idea of them stopping. There should be a ceasefire.” Tel Aviv, however, did not even react to the American leader’s words. Well-known analyst Ian Bremmer summed it all up A simple Tweet: Added in Biden’s words “Impact: Zero”.
Biden asked if he was comfortable with a ground incursion into Lebanon:
“I’m comfortable with them stopping. We have to have a ceasefire now.Impact: Nil pic.twitter.com/Hx1BeRyo9e
— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) September 30, 2024
The decision by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to move toward a ground offensive in Lebanon illustrates how the US government feels between a rock and a hard place. According to CNNWashington was not informed in advance of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The discomfort inside the White House was notorious. But shortly after, in the face of a barrage of missiles fired at Israel from Iran, Joe Biden’s administration publicly pledged support for Tel Aviv again.
Things get complicated when we take into account that Biden is dropping out with the presidential election just over a month away. Therefore, many experts speculate that this may be Israel’s invasion of Lebanon “October Surprise” Undermining Votes in AmericaA reference to an old word used in the country about unpredictable events on the brink of elections.
Others are more cynical and raise the possibility that the Israeli prime minister has decided to move precisely now towards Lebanon: “Netanyahu is eager for a Trump victory, assuming he can do it, there is an almost universal opinion. Whatever you want,” summed up Michael Coblow, an analyst at the Israel Policy Forum. to the BBC. Others believe that Bibi’s motives are motivated by pressure from far-right parties to maintain their government coalition.
However, one way or another, one thing is clear: America has less and less influence over its ally, Israel. Although the country’s actions in the region could have a domino effect on North American politics.
The situation in Lebanon exposed the lack of coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv. Last week, the United States was upbeat about the progress of negotiations for a cease-fire not only in Gaza but also in Lebanon. France was involved in the process and both countries said they were confident 21 day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The discussions involved Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who reached an agreement in principle, according to the country’s Channel 12. “A US president would not openly lead such a process without Prime Minister Netanyahu’s agreement.” Confirmed by a source He was engaged in negotiations on the same channel.