October ends with ‘Halloween,’ but Donald Trump can be trick-or-treating before the month is out. In the months leading up to the November election, former President Donald Trump has gained strength in several key states, according to polls released Tuesday. The data put Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in swing states including Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
According to polls conducted in late September and early October, Trump and Harris are practically tied as they enter the final month of the campaign before Election Day. However, Trump’s margins in some of these states suggest the race may be closer than expected.
An analysis of recent polls by veteran analyst Nate Silver released Tuesday shows Harris leading nationally by 3.4 points. However, Silver pointed out that due to the Electoral College system, Harris only had a 55% chance of winning. On Wednesday, Trump cemented his position as the favorite to win in November, according to betting site Betfair, after a debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walls and Ohio Senator JD Vance.
The Insider Advantage poll, conducted Sept. 29-30, surveyed 800 voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. The results show Trump leading Harris by 1 percentage point in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, while the two candidates are tied at 48% in Georgia.
Specifically, Trump leads 49% in Arizona and Nevada, 48% for Harris, and 50% in North Carolina to 49%. InsiderAdvanage polls have a margin of error that varies between 3 and 3.7 points.
The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted Sept. 25-29, interviewed 942 voters in Georgia and 953 voters in North Carolina, with a margin of error of 3.2 points. In Georgia, the data reveals a more significant advantage for Trump, who appeared with 50% of voting intentions, with 44%, 6 points ahead of Harris. In North Carolina, the race is close, with Trump ahead by just 2 points, 47% to 49%.
Another poll conducted by The Washington Post between September 25 and 29 found Trump leading 50% to Harris’ 48% among 1,001 voters in North Carolina, a margin of error of 3.5 points.
Consistent results but within error limits
Other polls conducted by the New Emerson College Poll in Arizona and North Carolina showed similar results, with Trump leading, though the differences were within their respective margins of error. In Arizona, Trump emerged with 50% of the vote to 47% for Harris. In North Carolina, the margin was only 1 point with Trump at 49% and Harris at 48%. Both surveys were carried out between September 27 and 28 with a margin of error of 3.2 and 3.3 points respectively.
Despite Trump’s favorable numbers in some states, Harris got some good news in Michigan. A Neapolitan News poll conducted between September 24 and 27 put the vice president 3 points ahead of Trump in the state, with 47% against the former president and 50% of voting intentions. The poll interviewed 789 voters and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.
A close situation in Pennsylvania
Another swing state, Pennsylvania, also looks like a tight battleground. An analysis of 12 state polls by the website RealClearPolitics found Trump leading by at least 0.2 percentage points, with 48.1% to Harris’ 47.9%. However, a similar analysis conducted on September 18 had Harris slightly ahead by 0.6 points.
Economic options favor Harris
Despite Trump’s lead in several states, a Guardian poll of 2,122 U.S. adults released Monday found Americans generally favor Trump’s economic policies, without identifying the authors. This factor will be decisive as voters evaluate candidates’ proposals in the final stages of the campaign.
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