Ursula von der Leyen returned from her vacation last week to prepare for a second term at the top of the European Commission, promising that the next five years will be more challenging than her first term. If he has to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine during this period, he will have the same conflict for his second term, plus a new US president – which could be even more complicated if he is. Donald Trump – and strengthened by far-right Europe.
“The next five years will be a political minefield,” a senior EU official told POLITICO. “During that time, he will have to make important decisions about the future of the European Union and its budget, while dealing with the war in Ukraine and the US elections.”
Van der Leyen had problems everywhere he looked.
The European Parliament is more divided than ever. At the European Council table – the bloc’s 27 political leaders – many are right-wing and/or openly hostile to Von der Leyen. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating — or conflict in the Middle East — while the U.S. remains reluctant to support Ukraine.
At the same time, Brussels is bracing for a bitter battle over its finances as it struggles to finance both its growing defense spending and its green transition. In these next five years, van der Leyen must prepare the EU for future enlargement, and the 449 million people in the EU must be convinced that the future of the EU does not lie in Paris alone. Warsaw, but also Kiev, Chisinau or Podgorica.
An EU diplomat has “shown her courage” to lead the bloc in difficult times, particularly during the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, Van der Leyen said: “still, she has a tough road ahead”. According to Virginijus Sinkevicius, a former European commissioner during Von der Leyen’s first term, “the second term is more challenging than the first” because the pandemic and the war in Ukraine gave the European Commission president room to maneuver a way into the future. May not be without challenges.
“The international environment for the EU is becoming more difficult, so the search for unity and action will be at least as great as we have seen in the last five years,” said Nicolai von Ontersa, a political scientist at the German Institute. Social Affairs and Security.
In the European Council, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the twin engines that usually run the coalition, have been weakened politically following their defeat in European Parliament elections. Both are trying to contain the far right at home.
Other important and stable leaders, such as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Groove, have left the European Council table, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is keen to exert his influence on European countries.
This would give van der Leyen an opportunity to be a “leader”, said one European diplomat, who said he had the political instinct to listen to others and then present ideas at the right political moment.
The change in dynamics is both an opportunity and a challenge for van der Leyen
Van der Leyen’s controlling and distant leadership style angered leaders and their representatives in Brussels, who were often surprised by his rapid decision-making process. As populist and nationalist forces rage against Europe’s political mainstream, European heads of state and government risk becoming more nervous and unpredictable in their decision-making processes. And let’s not forget the corrosive work Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has done inside the nest.
Van der Leyen’s toxic relationship with Charles Michel, president of the European Council, can only improve with his successor Antonio Costa, with whom the president of the European Commission has an excellent working relationship.
Brussels hopes the pair will follow the successful working relationship established between 2009 and 2014 by the first President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, with former Commission President José Manuel Barroso. We managed to keep them behind closed doors”, recalled an EU source – the pair led the EU through the financial crisis, with the two leaders working side-by-side to keep the crowd together at a time of intense pressure on the eurozone.
In the European Parliament, things seem even more complicated. Centrist forces – van der Leyen’s European People’s Party, Socialists, Liberals and Greens – were able to unite to support another term as head of the Commission. But parliament’s fragmentation and shift to the right means von der Leyen and his team will have to work harder to get European lawmakers to pass new legislation.
Over the next five years, van der Leyen will have to prepare the EU for the future, ensure it has enough money and prepare it for enlargement.
Capitals in the bloc are deeply divided over what their top priority should be: boosting their arms industry to counter an increasingly belligerent Russia, boosting green investment to meet climate goals or allowing the industry to remain competitive under pressure from Washington and Beijing. Two-thirds of the EU budget is spent on subsidies for agribusiness and infrastructure projects in Europe’s poorest regions. One European source explains that changing this would be “like opening Pandora’s box”.
Negotiations over the EU’s seven-year budget of around one trillion euros are always fierce battles, as each figure must be agreed by the 27 governments. Last time, the talks culminated in a marathon five-day leaders’ summit.
“In his first term, he was a crisis manager. Now it has to ensure that the EU remains relevant by setting the budget and preparing the bloc for enlargement. These internal reforms have a tendency to break European politicians”, pointed out the same source.
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