The “double haters” are disappearing and 90% of voters (even Republicans) approve of Biden’s decision. How last month’s political earthquakes rocked voting intentions

Since the remarkable events that have made this election campaign one of the strangest rollercoasters in modern American history, voters are on the move. The aftermath of Biden’s retreat and attack on Trump has already moved the presidential tectonic plates — and more changes are expected in the polls in the coming weeks.

A majority of American voters are clearly opposed Rematch In 2020, the November presidential elections appeared to be in the hands of a fringe group of so-called “dual haters” — those who support neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden and, for months, make up about one-fifth of the voting population. The polls were unprecedented in US electoral history. That changed a week ago, when the current president confirmed that he would not be a candidate.

One Siena College Poll for The New York Times, released Thursday, showed the percentage of “double haters” dropped from 20% to 8% after Biden withdrew, paving the way for Kamala Harris’ candidacy. That’s in part because left-leaning voters are satisfied with the current president’s exit from the scene.

They are not alone. The same poll shows that nine in ten voters, including Republicans and independents, believe Biden made the right decision. As you mention Data analyst Nate Cohn: “I don’t think the Times/Sienna poll found 87% of voters disagreeing with anything, but that’s the percentage who say they approve of Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race.” Now that he’s no longer in the race, his approval rating has jumped from 36% to 43% — Harris’s 46%.

Trump is ahead — but within the margin of error

Both Harris and Trump are riding waves of big and unlikely events, and this explains why Trump’s popularity trails the influence of the current president and his vice president. Overall, 48% of registered voters say they have a favorable view of the Republican nominee, up six percentage points from the last survey by the same firm — after Biden’s sinking debate but before Trump’s escape in Pennsylvania.

That’s his most favorable number in a Times/Sienna survey since the primaries began, after months of ranging from 39% to 45%. This may explain another important fact to remember from the latest NYT poll — that despite Democrats reaping the benefits of Biden’s decision, Donald Trump continues to lead.

The difference is that, this time, there is little separating him from his Democratic challenger (whose nomination will only be formalized at the August convention): between Potential voters, disaggregated among registered voters, Trump gets 48% of voting intentions, versus 47% for Harris. And in a recent CNN poll, Trump has 49% support from registered voters nationwide, compared to 46% for Harris — well within the poll’s sampling margin of error, translating into a much closer race than the previous Channel poll. The Biden-Trump Confrontation

“After the issue, there were big moves compared to previous Times-Canadian polls, all of which were conducted before the Republican National Convention and before Trump’s assassination attempt before Vice President Harris was almost assured of his party’s nomination,” notes Nate. Cone. “Even a one-point deficit for Harris represents a significant improvement for Democrats Biden’s six-point deficit In a recent Times/Siena poll.”

Playing in Harris’ favor is the fact that he’s also trending higher in the polls than Trump. Overall, 46% of registered voters say they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, up from 36% in February. And the proportion of respondents who disagree is now below the 50% threshold, up from 54% in the last survey.

Kamala’s Rapid Rise and the Possible “Kennedy Effect”

Public perception also seems to be improving. The total number of voters who now believe America is “on the right track” has risen to 27% — a relatively low number, but after the 2022 midterm elections, the percentage of registered voters, people with disabilities on the ballot, who did not go to the polls this year also dropped from 4% to 2%.

Among Democrats, the outlook is even brighter. Nearly 80% say the party should nominate Kamala Harris, while only 14% argue it should nominate another candidate — and 70% believe it should rally around her, while 27% say the party should focus on one process. Highly competitive appointment.

The point is that no one is willing to give up future candidacies with a higher chance of success to put themselves on the path to becoming America’s first woman and first African-American president. As Ron Brownstein said on CNN Portugal on Thursday: “Having the first woman of color serve as vice president is always a risky proposition for any other candidate with long-term ambitions. While there may theoretically be a demand for a substitute, there is unlikely to be a supply.

What can we expect from the Harris-Trump controversy? It’s too early to tell, but voters are on the move. After a hectic month of campaigning, the next few weeks will be crucial to understand how much support Kamala can garner – and now she is, polls show. Better than Biden (and more so than Trump) among younger voters, Hispanics and, of course, African Americans.

Robert F., who appeals more to right-wing voters. Kennedy Jr. — and in the most recent NYT poll, when considered alongside other minor candidates — could help him be one of the third-party candidates in this race. , putting Kamala and Donald in a technical draw.

“It’s just one poll, but we can’t rule out the idea that Kennedy’s presence could help Harris in the race,” Cohn says. “If he was sufficiently attractive to young and disaffected voters, Kennedy would not gain much support. [a Harris] — and may start eroding Trump’s support out of proportion.