This Friday, the White House followed in the footsteps of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and several other countries in greenlighting the use of North American weapons in Russia. Analysts assure us that the dynamics of the war have changed, but there is a difference: “The Munich moment has not yet happened.”
“This morning, the British ambassador in Berlin delivered a ultimatum to the German government. The note read: If you are not ready to withdraw troops from Poland by 11:00, there will be war between us.
I must now tell you that no such assurance has been obtained, and that this country is in consequence at war with Germany.
In the United Kingdom, the clock struck 11:15 when Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, via BBC public radio, announced to the British that he had declared war on Adolf Hitler’s Germany. For the rest of the world this would be the start of World War II.
After 84 years, eight months and 28 days, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky singled out British newspaper The Guardian this Friday as saying the ongoing war in his country is “already a real World War III.” A day earlier, Joe Biden had given Ukraine the green light to use the legendary ATACMS, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, against Russian territory near Kharkiv, and reports emerged that France was preparing to send military instructors to Ukrainian territory, despite concerns from allies.
For international relations expert Tiago André Lopes, while the comparison is “valid” – two heads of state, two British media and a moment of great geostrategic uncertainty – there is a difference: “the Munich moment has not happened yet.”
Thiago Andre Lopes refers to the Munich Agreement between Germany, Italy, France and the United Kingdom, signed in Munich on September 29, 1938, in which Berlin gained control of the Sudetenland, a German-speaking region in the former Czechoslovakia. The professor at the Universidade Portucalense recalls that it was a moment of concession and a red line was drawn: not to invade Poland. A year later, Hitler advanced on Warsaw. In Ukraine, he says, “there is still no attempt at this concession,” which would involve giving up Crimea, barring the Kremlin paying reparations to Kiev or dropping Vladimir Putin’s international arrest warrant.
“Feelings and history are not good for both sides, but the Munich moment has not yet happened. It is important for Zelensky to dramatize this moment, because the Western public will continue to look favorably on the annual support for Ukraine”, explains Thiago André Lopes, confirming that this is not “the time to enter the third world war”.
Major General Arnaud Moreira considers that “nothing is inevitable” and the Ukrainian president does not go so far as to recognize that “the dynamics of war have changed and changed a lot”. “It was clear that the West realized that it gave Russia a strategic advantage. Within 15 days, we began to look at the war differently,” explains the military analyst, who guarantees that this has turned “the West realized. It is necessary to shoot down the troops before they cross the border into Ukraine.”
According to Arnaud Moreira, the decision by allies such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany was “necessary and taken very quickly”. First, as he explains, it was because of this “limitation drawn by the West that Russia exercised all the freedom of action necessary to seize convenient territory,” and second, because of “Russian maneuvers.” Near Kharkiv”.
“Now things have changed, they are no longer drones, but high-tech weapons from the West,” the major general points out, adding that Moscow must start defending itself in another way and “move anti-aircraft weapons. New areas near the Ukrainian border”.
For Tiago André Lopes, if the green light from Washington is “an officialization of what has already been done without being public”, the French decision to send troops to Ukraine is a different story: “We now formally consider states ready. To send troops, they don’t call them soldiers, they call them military instructors. are called, but this figure of the instructor is very vague and doubtful.” The international relations expert considers Paris’ position on these activists “not so linear”, and in his analysis warns that “Moscow will make every effort to send them back in coffins” to the Elysée, a response to which public opinion may affect the Palace’s ability to pay this cost.
Considering this, the Poland Diego Andre Lopes chose a different strategy when he announced the creation of a battalion of Ukrainians living in Polish territory to send to Ukraine. One that the expert classifies as a “contouring maneuver”. He opines that “Tusk’s purpose was not to lose public opinion.”
Arnaud Moreira assesses the deployment of French military personnel to Ukraine, noting that “all weapons systems require maintenance, so it is necessary to send technical support operators and instructors.” The military strategist highlights that “Russia is doing the same in Africa,” reiterating that “it’s completely normal.”
Once Western troops enter Ukraine, one scenario seems certain for Thiago André López: “The Kremlin’s objectives will become killing Europeans.”
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