“Overall, it is time for Europe to look at its own security,” Giles said today at the British Institute of International Relations (Chatham House) during a debate on the possibility of war.
Keir Giles, director of the Center for Conflict Studies Research, insisted today that Europe must strengthen itself militarily to defend itself against the Russian threat in any scenario of war in Ukraine.
“Overall, it is time for Europe to look at its own security,” Giles said today at the British Institute of International Relations (Chatham House) during a debate on the possibility of war.
For an expert on Russia-related matters, it is “strange” that it is still being debated which member states have or have not met their commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Defensiveness”.
According to Gilles, this is a “long-obsolete act of commitment” and failure to achieve this aim should be a source of shame.
“It indicates lack of government consciousness, lack of leadership. It indicates a nation's refusal to take seriously its duty to protect not only its allies but also its own citizens,” he criticized.
According to Giles, “There is no credibility [para a guerra] It requires not absolutely the maximum possible support for Ukraine, but a massive reinvestment in the country's defense and not only in leading states, but across Europe.
Former ambassador to Georgia, Natalie Sabanatze, also warned of various scenarios that could pose a threat to Europe and European security.
A key to the conflict may be control of the Black Sea, through which Ukraine can still transport some of its grain exports.
“Simply, Russia wants to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and take Odesa, which will cripple Ukraine economically, and it will give access to Transnistria”, a territory of Moldova where Russia maintains forces, he said.
If Moscow were to use the port in Abkhazia, a breakaway region from Georgia, as a base, it could draw this former Soviet state into conflict, as it did Transnistria, and threaten Romania as well.
“The Black Sea for Russia will allow it to exert more power, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Western Balkans, for example, creating opportunities to exert pressure on Europe by migrating across the Eastern Mediterranean and creating hybrids of regimes in the Western Balkans,” Sabanadze predicted.
Patricia Lewis, director of the Chatham House International Security Program, suggested that Ukraine and its allies should prepare for the different types of commitments that could be violated.
“Russia has broken many agreements. Therefore, if Ukraine wants to choose a ceasefire or a peace agreement, we will have to build it hopelessly”, he lamented.
For this analyst, the biggest factor in the negotiations is the November elections in the United States.
“It's very difficult with a president and an administration that supports Ukraine. If we transition to another type of American administration that doesn't have this support, where we can see more support for Russia, the president [Volodymyr] Zelensky may be in a very difficult position. “Putin knows that,” he emphasized.
James Nixey, director of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program, acknowledged that “Russia has a kind of threefold advantage” in terms of weapons, manpower and military industrial capacity.
“It would be wrong to say that Ukraine can't win, but in the absence of new funding and lethal aid, the bleak scenario is actually quite plausible,” he noted.
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