In an interview with Lusa, Sweden's ambassador to NATO, Axel Vernhoff, admitted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, changed the reality of all countries and brought them closer to a scenario that had been forgotten since the 1990s.
The threat from Russia is driving European countries to turn to regional security and realignment, and while Moscow is focused on occupying Ukraine, it can launch hybrid attacks and cyberattacks, says Sweden's ambassador to NATO.
In an interview with Lusa, Axel Wernhoff admitted that Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 changed the reality of all countries and brought them closer to a situation they had forgotten since the 1990s.
“Since 1990, or after the fall of the Berlin Wall, our security has changed, it is no longer a regional security, but a security for serving in various missions abroad, such as in the Balkans or Afghanistan,” explained the Swedish ambassador. .
“It changed dramatically and we turned around [a Suécia] For our nuclear regional security mission, the same is happening with NATO,” he added, at the premises of the Swedish diplomatic mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a kilometer away from the headquarters. Military Alliance, in Brussels.
Axel Wernhoff recalls that during the Cold War, a time of geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and the former Soviet Union from the late 1940s to the early 1990s, countries “invested 4% of their gross domestic product.” GDP in defense”, but “since 2010, there may have been a decline of up to 1%”, due to a shift in the geopolitical paradigm.
“Now we're ramping up seriously [o investimento em defesa]We have arrived [a Suécia] At 2% [do PIB]. If you look at what happened historically during the Cold War, this is not very high,” the ambassador added.
Over-investment is “painful” for over-invested countries.
However, Axel Wernhoff rejected the need for a war economy, which could now force its defense sector to mass produce, as has happened with Russia: “We are not at that stage”.
After the Ukraine invasion, Sweden submitted an application to join NATO in May 2022, fearing that it would be Moscow's next target.
The candidacy was joined by Finland, but Helsinki joined in early April 2023, and Stockholm was left alone, pending ratification of Turkey and Hungary's accession treaty earlier this year. Signed, as the Hungarian Parliament will only resume at the end of February.
Two years into the war with no end in sight, NATO's ambassador deemed there was “no immediate threat” of a “conventional invasion” because “Russia is concerned about Ukraine.”
However, Axel Wernhoff admitted that the Kremlin could attack them in a different way, “with hybrid attacks and cyber attacks”.
He recalled that despite casualties and losses of military equipment on the Russian side, “important parts of its defenses, such as its air force, remain intact.”
“They are [Rússia] They have capabilities in Kaliningrad, which are very close to Sweden and the Nordic countries, which would certainly harm us without a large-scale conventional invasion of our territories.
But joining NATO as a member state this year – although it is still uncertain when – everything points – the country has a large and integrated military group, the ambassador recalled.
The military offensive launched by Russia in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 has caused the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II (1939-1945).
The Russian invasion – justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin as the need to “denazify” and militarize Ukraine for Russia’s security – was condemned by much of the international community, which responded by sending arms to Ukraine and imposing political and economic pressure on Russia. Obstacles.