The market needs weak retail data to stay strong

CNBC’s Jim Kramer warned Friday that the stock market’s current run could fizzle out if October retail sales data gets hot next week.

“If we see weak retail sales and learn things are getting promotional in the core apparel sector, then the market can stay strong,” he said, adding, “The worse retail gets worse, the less damage the Fed has to do before. They declare victory.”

Stocks rose on Friday after lower-than-expected October CPI data released the previous day raised investors’ hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes. The benchmark S&P 500 index ended its best week since June.

Earnings reports from the nation’s largest retailers take center stage next week, as will October’s retail sales data.

“While I want retail stocks to do well, it is strange that I find a weak number [from the October report] With a little bit of inflation in order to make it happen.”

Also review the next week’s earnings list. All earnings and revenue estimates are provided by FactSet.

Tuesday: Walmart, Home Depot

Walmart

  • Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Announcement at 7 AM ET; Conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: $1.32
  • Expected revenue: $147.67 billion

The economy is weak enough that shoppers are starting to pull back, Kramer said, which is good news for Walmart.

Home Depot

  • Announcing Q3 2022 earnings at 6 a.m. ET; Conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: $4.12
  • Expected revenue: $37.94 billion
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Wednesday: Lowe’s, TJX, Target, Nvidia

Louie

  • Announcing Q3 2022 earnings at 6 a.m. ET; Conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: $3.09
  • Expected revenue: $23.14 billion

Cramer said Lowe’s and Home Depot are likely to win because of the home’s renovations, but he doesn’t expect either company to kick him out of the garden.

TJX

  • Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Announcement at 9:30 a.m. ET; Conference call at 11 a.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: 80 cents
  • Expected revenue is $12.30 billion

He said TJX stock is “the best ever for this particular moment.”

targeting

  • Q3 2022 earnings announcement at 6:30 a.m. ET; Conference call at 8 a.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: $2.16
  • Expected revenue: $26.41 billion

He said he believed in the goal.

nvidia

  • 2023 Q3 earnings release at 3:20 PM ET; Conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: 71 cents
  • Expected revenue: $5.8 billion

Cramer said he is concerned that semiconductor players are seeing a rise in sell coverage rather than a sustainable rise.

Thursday: Coles, Gap, Palo Alto Networks

kohl

  • Announcing Q3 2022 earnings at 7 a.m. ET; Conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Initial EPS: 82 cents
  • Initial revenue: $4.05 billion

the difference

  • Q3 2022 earnings announcement at 4:15 p.m. ET; Conference call at 5 p.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: $0
  • Expected revenue: $3.81 billion

Kramer said he’s not interested in the shares of both Kohl’s and Gap.

Palo Alto Networks

  • 2023 Q1 earnings release at 4:05 p.m. ET; Conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: 69 cents
  • Expected revenue: $1.55 billion

He said he recommends buying the stock if it drops before the earnings announcement.

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Friday: foot locker

  • Announcing Q3 2022 earnings at 6:45 a.m. ET; Conference call at 9 a.m. ET
  • Expected EPS: $1.14
  • Expected revenue: $2.10 billion

Cramer said he’s betting CEO Mary Dillon has a plan to improve Foot Locker’s performance.

Disclaimer: Cramer’s Charitable Trust owns shares of TJX and Nvidia.

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