What is the effect of anti-Bolsonaro campaigns on networks? – International

In recent weeks, a series of campaigns on social networks, mainly on Twitter, led by prominent figures on the left, have set the agenda for online debates not only in the progressive bubble, but also in the Bolsonarista bubble.

The first campaign began shortly after the first round, which attempted to link candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to Freemasonry and Satanism. On October 4th, the words FREEMASONRY and FREEMASON were quoted more than 1 million times on Twitter. According to an analysis by social media analyst Pedro Barcela, the campaign topped the Bolsonaroistas’ counter-defense for 48 hours.

A second campaign soon followed on October 5, attempting to link Bolsonaro to cannibalistic practices cannibalism went viral on Twitter and occupied the trending topics (most commented topics) throughout the day. The third and most recent campaign made “Bolsonaro a pedophile” the most shared hashtag on Twitter on October 15. The campaign responded to candidate Bolsonaro’s statement that he had “drawn a climate” between him and 14- and 15-year-old Venezuelan girls. Interview for podcast.

In both cases, TSE decisions prevented PT campaigns from airing on the issues.

Brazil is not Twitter

While online campaigns with these themes dominate discussions on Twitter, much is being asked about the actual impact of these campaigns and whether they actually reach voters beyond the platform. This is a criticism I have reinforced: “Twitter is not Brazil. Brazil is not on Twitter”.

In the ranking of active Brazilian users on social networks, Twitter only occupy At number 9 with 19 million users, WhatsApp is the leader with 165 million users.

It is precisely the messaging apps that have the best idea of ​​whether Twitter campaigns really reached Bolsonaro’s voters. WhatsApp is Finds out 99% of Brazil and 65% of cell phones are found on Telegram, and it is on these platforms that Bolsoneristas express themselves most naturally in their groups. Second Analysis For the first time since the start of the campaign, “attacks against Bolsonaro” outnumbered “attacks against Lula” on WhatsApp, according to Balver Consultancy.

Of the 122 Bolsonarista groups on Telegram that I monitor Election SentinelThe term “Freemasonry” is quoted 2 to 5 times a day and is quoted in over 600 news items.

In turn, the propaganda that tried to associate Bolsonaro with cannibalism did not reach the Bolsonarista Telegram in the same way that “Freemasonry” did – but it could be said that it reached these circles as well.

In the last 10 days, the word “cannibal” or “cannibal” was not mentioned at all or once a day. On October 5, it was 20 times.

“Pedophilia”

A campaign linking Bolsonaro to pedophilia hit 122 Bolsonaroist groups on Telegram. Because the topic of pedophilia has always been a weapon for the Bolsonaristas to accuse and demonize their opponents – that is, it is always a topic discussed in these spaces.

On Children’s Day, October 12, there was a lot of discussion about the case of the former Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights, Damares Alves, who commented on child trafficking in Marajo without any evidence: it had 206 messages. 122 groups amplified the future senator’s comments in clear support of the story – the public ministry asked for clarification.

The tone changed on the 15th and 16th and today.

There was a serious effort to create a narrative to justify Bolsonaro’s speech: there were 126 messages. A tweet in which Flavio Bolsonaro allegedly tried to soften his father’s speech was the most circulated, with leftists accusing him of fake news by associating the term “paint a climate” with pedophilia.

By analyzing this data from WhatsApp and Telegram, we can confirm that anti-Bolsonaro campaigns on Twitter also led Bolsonaro groups, that is, they went beyond the more exclusive platform Twitter and dominated the discussion on more popular platforms. Like WhatsApp and Telegram.

With this, there has been speculation that such campaigns have the potential to turn the votes of the president’s supporters. However, when I analyzed many of the messages in these groups reacting to the campaigns,​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ had had a defensive tone – that is, there was no sign of a serious movement and vote shift to create content to defend their candidate, Jair Bolsonaro. This is evident in recent polls where Lula dropped from 1% to 52% in the 2nd round and Bolsonaro gained 1% to 48% of valid votes.

However, one of the effects of such campaigns on Bolsonaroist groups and on Twitter is that while Bolsonaroistas lead the debate in spaces, their supporters are busy defending the president instead of investing efforts and time in controlling and promoting the debate. Attacks on his opponents and pro-Bolsonaro campaigns.

Another possible outcome is that the intensity and aggressiveness of anti-Bolsonaro campaigns on networks discourages its base from leaving home and voting for Bolsonaro. studies program Campaigns that undermine a candidate’s credibility can undermine his base.

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General Agency ReportOriginally published on October 21, 2022. Republic has a contract with Polygraph Public company It is one of the most prestigious media in Brazil. Original spelling respected.